Where is pinball heading?

dieseldogpi

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I know this has been asked before, and I'm refering to the collector, not the commercial sector. I see on Boston pinball repair eBay summary that the number of units have dropped while the prices have gone up. Plus I see post after post on craigslist of self proclaimed hobbyists wanting to buy any game in any shape. Anytime I respond to a legitimate ad, the pins are gone within minutes, or the price is outrageous. Maybe its just my area, northeast, tri-state area mostly. Just looking to see what everyone's thoughts are from other areas of the country, as well as mine. Is this hobby going to be pulled from the collectors in favor of non-pinheads selling overpriced pins to capitalize on the wave of geek-dom that this country is experiencing? Am i overthinking? Should I just stfu and play some pinball?
 
Totally hear you on this one. Prices are outrageous and the sellers know it. There are still humble collectors out there that price their games correctly, but what ends up happening is that somewhere along the line, someone does a 100+ hour restoration on a machine and adds their time into the price tag... which in my opinion only reflects the value to THAT seller and not necessarily the value of the machine itself. To make it worse, other people that own the same title see a high end restoration selling for an obnoxious price and automatically assume their machine is worth the same.

My advice is to just be patient. Good pins from the 80's and 90's can still be gotten for reasonable prices between $700 - $1500 which is generally what they have been for the last 10 years (except for the A-List titles, and granted many titles have ballooned up unreasonably, such as Funhouse). The one redeeming factor about the high prices is that if you DO layout the cash for a $3000 to $4000 game, you're likely going to get it right back when you go to sell.

And I agree, the overwhelming amount of wanted ads nowadays is strange, especially when 90% of them don't respond.

-Brendan
 
dieseldogpi

Northeast also Ohio/PA region here. I've also noticed that the prices on CL and the Bay lately have boomed to an unreasonable level. OPPORTUNISTS not hobbyists trying to sell early puck bowlers for $1800.00 or $2000.00. CDI Sound Stage pin for $1600.00.

I believe some of this abuse is as a result of some of the recent reality shows American Pickers, etc. The interest is peaking. New or non collectors are prey for the flip type opportunists. Thus the foundation for the poser hobbyist buying your arcade/pin on CL.

Your point is valid however I don't believe this is the end of our era in collecting...I believe many will get burned and that's the regretable part of this all...the potential pure hobbyist we lose...We'll have to be more selective. Collector to collector we know what games are worth.

Great topic...play some pinball for the hell of it...I'm heading down with some Yeungling to throw a few Ski Balls...

OHEMIO
 
Collecting pins in the midwest is tough. There aren't enough pins available and there are so many waiting for a deal to show up. I've had to drive several hours to get most of my good pins.
 
I'm trying to patiently wait for a deal. I wouldn't mind driving either, part of the fun if you ask me, if there was something to drive to. I saw a Space Shuttle on CL about 3-4 hours away from me for 900. From the very fuzzy pic it seemed ok, but after I requested better pics, I saw TERRIBLE wear on the playfield, it would need a playfield swap, for 900. You could tell the person was not a collector, nor the typical opportunist. Probably someone who saw a space shuttle on ebay for over 2k, so they figured in poor shape, it would go for 900. I feel like there is even a difference in short couple of years that I have been involved in the hobby.
 
I am in somewhat located
in your neck of the woods. Every once in a while I stumble upon a good deal. But I am mostly looking for fixer upper project machines to keep me busy in the winter. But when I have sold, I sold them at realistic value. Not the stoopid american picker prices.

I just think the overpriced machines will sit. and thats about that.

just like your guy over kokomo that keeps putting up the same stoopid ad
 
@playpin35, what's the story on that coin op guy that posts on craigslist in missouri. the guy that has posted the $400 space shuttle over and over since spring.
he doesn't reply to email inquires but just keeps posting.
i get the impression something doesn't smell right.

you looked into that guy down there?
 
@playpin35, what's the story on that coin op guy that posts on craigslist in missouri. the guy that has posted the $400 space shuttle over and over since spring.
he doesn't reply to email inquires but just keeps posting.
i get the impression something doesn't smell right.

you looked into that guy down there?

does the c/l space shuttle post have pics? if so go to ipdb and see if the pics match.
there was a space shuttle posted on c/l near me a few months ago for $400. i emailed the poster twice and no reply. i happened to go to ipdb and found the poster had used 2 pics from the site.some sort of scam,for the life of me i cannot figure why anyone would do this.
 
I see the hobby going into more LE (Limited Edition) games, custom games, and regular games with lots of mods. Mods like custom plating, led bulbs, custom artwork, etc. Stern will made several editions of the same game. I know they plan on doing this with the new AC/DC game. I know there is a 'Black in Black' version plus a few others planned.

The A-title games will continue to go up in pricing.
 
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@playpin35, what's the story on that coin op guy that posts on craigslist in missouri. the guy that has posted the $400 space shuttle over and over since spring.
he doesn't reply to email inquires but just keeps posting.
i get the impression something doesn't smell right.

you looked into that guy down there?



If you are referring to this guy
http://springfield.craigslist.org/clt/2764572826.html

no I have not. I think he has posted that for over a year now. I never had an interest in those, so never pursued it.
 
I think the collector community is not getting larger, but collectors are "hoarding" more machines and being a little more aggressive in looking for good deals. There are still good deals out there. 2010 saw a slight bump up in average prices, but overall, pinball prices have been on the decline for the last several years. Certain A-list games will continue to appreciate in value and the top-tier games will always command a premium. However, there are also many games that are super good that have not gone up in price in the last few years (RFM, STTNG, W?D, etc.) I think EM games are continuing to go down in price, BUT there is a bottom level they'll probably reach which is the value of the machines in parts - we are starting to see that happen now. A Williams Sys11 game may not fall under $400-$500, and a WPC game may bottom out at $700-$800 simply because it can be parted out at that cost. EM games seem to bottom out around $200-$300 (in non-working condition). I don't see them going lower, but it depends upon condition.

In some markets there is more or less aggressive collectors. If you happen to be in an area where you have people robo-checking CL with lots of disposable income and storage space, then you're going to have a hard time getting a good deal, except from other collectors looking to flip pins to make space or money.

So you have a few options depending upon what sceanario you're in:

If you're in an area where there's lots of competition (Texas for example), your best bet to get games at good prices is to befriend some of the other collectors and take the chaff off their hands. I've gotten some really good deals at the pinball shows and from regional people who occasionally want to get rid of something rather than store and haul it.

If you're in an area where there aren't a lot of collectors, scan the local classifieds and be patient.

It's also possible that you may be in an area that just doesn't have a lot of pins. It's weird how some regions are loaded with lots of pinballs and others are not. If you're lucky enough to be around the IL area, you also run the chance of stumbling upon prototypes and sample games -- I've never had that happen to me. That's kind of cool.
 
I think the collector community is not getting larger, but collectors are "hoarding" more machines and being a little more aggressive in looking for good deals. There are still good deals out there. 2010 saw a slight bump up in average prices, but overall, pinball prices have been on the decline for the last several years. Certain A-list games will continue to appreciate in value and the top-tier games will always command a premium. However, there are also many games that are super good that have not gone up in price in the last few years (RFM, STTNG, W?D, etc.) I think EM games are continuing to go down in price, BUT there is a bottom level they'll probably reach which is the value of the machines in parts - we are starting to see that happen now. A Williams Sys11 game may not fall under $400-$500, and a WPC game may bottom out at $700-$800 simply because it can be parted out at that cost. EM games seem to bottom out around $200-$300 (in non-working condition). I don't see them going lower, but it depends upon condition.

.

Holding on to titles that people have deemed as "keepers" is not hoarding - it's called collecting. Hoarding is when people have multiple of the same exact item.

EM prices are almost always well under a grand and I don;t feel the prices are moving at all. The price on EM's IMHO have plateau'd. As far as seeing the WPC or later games being parted out it's happening less and less as more and more repro items are being made.

Forget A-list games - of course they will continue to go up in value but the sky does have a ceiling. The lower class games are holding their values if not climbing a little IMHO partially due to the NIB prices. $2000 for a pin may seem like a lot of money but compared to $4500-$6000 it's more doable.

So to answer the question asked, where is pinball heading? Based SOLELY on my local market and the OPs I know:

It doesn't take a math major to see a $4200 pin for an OP after the 50/50 split @ .50 a game will take 16,800 games to pay the intial investment off -tax and interest. Now add in any repairs and maintenance. Pinball is just not doable UNLESS the location demands a pin and the other games are making a ton to offset the loss of the pin.

IMHO pinball in the wild is destined to fail. Pinball is without a doubt becoming more of a home market and why Gary Stern has eaten his words (his comment about he doesn't cater to or care about collectors).
 
Holding on to titles that people have deemed as "keepers" is not hoarding - it's called collecting. Hoarding is when people have multiple of the same exact item.

I didn't mean "hoarding" in the more modern, psychological term that is now popular on television. I meant in the more traditional definition of "holding onto". However, I do think that there are more and more "collectors" who are "hoarding" machines, picking up more games than they can restore themselves and storing them.

I agree there isn't much of a commercial market any more, although not in the traditional sense of pinballs being all over the place like they used to. However, it's possible that pinball could enjoy a popular renaissance -- this remains to be seen though, because the biggest problem I see in the industry is that there is no real innovation. The current manufacturers are just cranking out "retro" games, appealing to an existing, ever-diminishing market (which explains why the prices have gone up for NIB games when virtually everything else electronic is going down in price: this is a very limited market, probably only there for a limited time too).

In lieu of any manufacturer redefining what "pinball" is and making it appeal to younger generations (which I don't see happening with any of the existing MFGs), what I see happening is pinball will become an interesting novelty - the games won't be on location all over, but we will probably see some viable pinball arcades in select markets, like we have with the PHOF in vegas, PPM in California, etc. It would be interesting to get feedback from other regional places like Pinballz in Austin and Joystix in Houston and see if they have a viable business model.. I'm not sure if its profitable unless they're in large cities. Will that change? Hard to tell.
 
If you happen to be in an area where you have people robo-checking CL with lots of disposable income and storage space, then you're going to have a hard time getting a good deal, except from other collectors looking to flip pins to make space or money.

And that, my friends, perfectly sums up my neck of the woods. (Chattanooga, TN)
 
I think there are enough deals on various sites like this one to pick up a machine. I buy from people on here all the time. THe problem is nobody has cheap shipping rates. NAVL is around $475. I can ship without NAVL as long as someone puts it on a pallet and have R+L pick up the machine with a liftgate and get it to me for around $175.
 
I had recently inquired about the Bay tek company.
I think the future of pinball needs to take a hint on the money making commercial side.

make some games that are super fast games with a 5sec to 30sec goal.... to gobble tokens, make em compatible with ticket dispensing.

Bay tek has a game called star shooter that is a plunger and some bumper post lanes. you put a coin in. hit the plunger once. and the ball falls into one of the ticket dispensing lanes.
and the kids line up to pump money into it.
it has been on that location for years now and it never loses interest.

and a simple bay tek machine costs more than a high end pinball machine. they definitely understand the money gobbling strategy well.

williams tried slot machines and gave up pinball per that documentary.
maybe stern needs to learn to do it right from bay tek.
once they are profitable again, then do some traditional pinball.

dealing with a much shorter attention span society than the past decades.....
 
I don't see anyway the commercial side of pinball can come back. No one leaves there house anymore, so it would have to be some sort of miracle innovation that gets people (kids?) out of there house and to an arcade. Even places geared towards adults, like Dave N Busters, is all ticket redemption, no pins, and 5 year old arcades, pointless if you ask me. And as far as the private market growing, I think pinball is too expensive, takes up too much space, and too complicated for the average Joe to catch on mainstream. The collector group MIGHT be growing, but if that will continue or even sustain, who knows. Maybe in 5 years, when the auction hunter type stuff dies down, and all the new collectors can't fix or maintain their expensive machines, we will see an influx of cheap pins that have been neglected for a while.
 
Bay tek has a game called star shooter that is a plunger and some bumper post lanes. you put a coin in. hit the plunger once. and the ball falls into one of the ticket dispensing lanes.
and the kids line up to pump money into it.
it has been on that location for years now and it never loses interest.

sounds like a simplified version of pa*****o...

ETA: stoopid vulgarity filter. pa ch in ko...
 
I cant tell you where the hobby is going as a whole.

I can tell you that when I see a deal on ANY pin, it HEADS straight for my basement!
 
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