Price guides...What do you use?

GameyMcGame

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Ok, so, it seems that time and time again here I see posts with people saying "Pin XXXX doesnt REALLY go for that, I have a friend that got it for XXXX"

I have found guides like bostonpinbiz.com and pinside to be very helpful (and GENERALLY very close) to what I ultimately have bought and sold pins for.

The ebay data gathered on boston pin collects all pins, sorts high and low and then throws out extreme outliers to help adjust for junk pins and shill auctions. It seems like that would give a reasonable average since some pins on ebay are mint and some are crap...Clearly ebay leans towards more retail pricing so take their pricing, adjust it 20% down and it seems pretty damn spot on...

So, what am I missing? Why dont peope 'believe' aggregated sales data about what pins go for?
 
those price lists are a good general guide, but it varies wildly by geographic location.
 
those price lists are a good general guide, but it varies wildly by geographic location.

beside geography its all about condition of the specific game and what the buyer is after. Some want 100% working but don't care about some wear. Others want perfect cosmetics but don't care if its 100% working. And others want it all and pay for it. 1k pin avg could go from 500 nonworking with cosmetic issues to over 1500 in super nice condition. Vids seem to have less of a price variation then pins unless fully restored. Of course pins cost a lot more typically.
 
beside geography its all about condition of the specific game and what the buyer is after. Some want 100% working but don't care about some wear. Others want perfect cosmetics but don't care if its 100% working. And others want it all and pay for it. 1k pin avg could go from 500 nonworking with cosmetic issues to over 1500 in super nice condition. Vids seem to have less of a price variation then pins unless fully restored. Of course pins cost a lot more typically.

Yep. Totally agree. Don't the highest and lowest sold numbers in the price guides take that Into account though?
 
Yep. Totally agree. Don't the highest and lowest sold numbers in the price guides take that Into account though?

Yes typically but its subjective from the point of view of the buyer and seller.

Are you seeing games go for really high prices or really low prices on a regular basis? If so maybe that indicates a general shift in market price for that game.
 
Yes typically but its subjective from the point of view of the buyer and seller.

Are you seeing games go for really high prices or really low prices on a regular basis? If so maybe that indicates a general shift in market price for that game.

Yeah. It's just weird, especially with higher end games. People seem to not believe that they actually sell for a certain price....even when price guides have hundreds of data points in a given year showing the average price. Strange.

I have yet to ever buy or sell an AVERAGE/GOOD condition pin for >or< ~20% of what boston pin has it tagged for.
 
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Ok, so, it seems that time and time again here I see posts with people saying "Pin XXXX doesnt REALLY go for that, I have a friend that got it for XXXX"

I have found guides like bostonpinbiz.com and pinside to be very helpful (and GENERALLY very close) to what I ultimately have bought and sold pins for.

The ebay data gathered on boston pin collects all pins, sorts high and low and then throws out extreme outliers to help adjust for junk pins and shill auctions. It seems like that would give a reasonable average since some pins on ebay are mint and some are crap...Clearly ebay leans towards more retail pricing so take their pricing, adjust it 20% down and it seems pretty damn spot on...

So, what am I missing? Why dont peope 'believe' aggregated sales data about what pins go for?

Your timing of your post is excellent. I have revamped http://pinlistings.com recently from an online calssifieds site to strictly an online price guide. It is a free community project in it's infancy, but the more data (that is honest and accurate), the better. It can only grow with your assistance.

I haven't made an official announcement on here, but feel free to post your data on there. It will always be anonymous (other than a legit email to keep spammers down), and it will always be free. It can be an excellent resource for buyers and sellers because it allows photos (to reflect condition as much as possible), location, and other factors that go into assessing value of a machine....
 
Your timing of your post is excellent. I have revamped http://pinlistings.com recently from an online calssifieds site to strictly an online price guide. It is a free community project in it's infancy, but the more data (that is honest and accurate), the better. It can only grow with your assistance.

I haven't made an official announcement on here, but feel free to post your data on there. It will always be anonymous (other than a legit email to keep spammers down), and it will always be free. It can be an excellent resource for buyers and sellers because it allows photos (to reflect condition as much as possible), location, and other factors that go into assessing value of a machine....

Very interesting.

Ok, so a call to the community (particularly those that dont seem to 'believe' price guides). Give feedback on WHY you feel like aggegated data doesnt reflect the market as you see it? Thanks!
 
Very interesting.

Ok, so a call to the community (particularly those that dont seem to 'believe' price guides). Give feedback on WHY you feel like aggegated data doesnt reflect the market as you see it? Thanks!

I will play along as I agree with a lot of what you are saying but will give you examples of what I feel the "market" is....

Ebay selling prices are going to be higher generally for a couple of reasons-

1)Worldwide audience (even if shipping isn't an option)

2)Paypal- The fact that people love their credit cards only helps them when Paypal is an option for buying such an expense

3)Don't see it in person- Seeing a machine in person is huge. there are some skillful photgraphers out there that are excellent at not showing details. Kinda a doubledged sword though- Nice Machines don't ever look as nice in photos as they do in person.

4) 15%- Knock 15-18% off the Ebay selling price, because that is what the seller actually received for their machine. So it can technically be argued that the value is actually what the seller received and not what the buyer paid.

I don't disagree with the aggregated data but it is far from true data. Example- I have seen the same Bally Gameshow listed on Ebay 3 times, and ech time it "sold", but was relisted due to the mysterious bidder not paying. that data was recorded on pinside and BostonPinball. Is it accurate? It was a clear shill attempt by the seller three times, and the 4th time (when it actually sold), I know firsthand it was sold off of Ebay.... Stuff like this happens quite a bit if you follow sales on Ebay with some regularity.

I would say that very little is sold on Ebay (for complete machines), and the majority of it is sold via local markets (CL, internet, etc.).

Just my 2 cents (and worth exactly that)
 
when you study the numbers at Boston Pinball, there are still wild variations..


example: Fathom is supposed to be a 1800 dollar machine, yet someone just paid six thousand for one. Must have been that mint example in Kansas City.
 
I will play along as I agree with a lot of what you are saying but will give you examples of what I feel the "market" is....


I would say that very little is sold on Ebay (for complete machines), and the majority of it is sold via local markets (CL, internet, etc.).

Just my 2 cents (and worth exactly that)

According to Boston Pinball, thirty thousand pinball machines have been sold on Ebay in the past three years. Now I'm no math wiz, but I believe that's around ten thousand machines sold annually! hehe Now thats JUST on Ebay.

No way of knowing how many machines are sold on Craigslist, but would you go as high as ten thousand annually? I wouldn't, but hey its just a guess anyway.
 
According to Boston Pinball, thirty thousand pinball machines have been sold on Ebay in the past three years. Now I'm no math wiz, but I believe that's around ten thousand machines sold annually! hehe Now thats JUST on Ebay.

No way of knowing how many machines are sold on Craigslist, but would you go as high as ten thousand annually? I wouldn't, but hey its just a guess anyway.

Definitely on the CL thing.... There are a ton of machines on CL throughout the country....Would be interesting to see the data....

Also, I would love to see data on Ebay sales in the last 365 days and not the last three years. I can gaurantee that actual sales on Ebay has dipped tremendously in the last 12-18 months. Games just sit on there at asinine prices. less is being sold and more is being advertised. With Ebay's fee structure changing a little over a year ago, it is getting silly how much their fees are for a sold machine.

I just sold a Dealers Choice on there 2 months ago (rarely sell on Ebay, needed room, 1 dollar start, no reserve)..... It went for $411, my final Ebay Fees? $38.00 (and that is because the buyer paid cash).... they got 10% of that sale... I sold a DE batman on there a couple of years ago for $900. My final value fees on that were around $50.00....
 
Also, I would love to see data on Ebay sales in the last 365 days and not the last three years.

That data is up on the Boston Pinball site.

I generally use several sources when I decide to price games:

1. Boston Pinball biz - you have to take into account that many eBay sales might or might-not include shipping (+/- $250-$400 for shipping)

2. Mr. Pinball price guide - a good reference, mainly for production figures - but also if you run into a seller with a wildly unrealistic price, you can show him the actual listing of the game's value in the pinball price guide and bring him down to earth sometimes.

3. My own intuition and experience

#3 comes in most handy, because it takes into account the painful reality that these games always have much more wrong with them than what the seller thinks, and it always costs more than what we expect to get them working. So I typically shoot for a minimum of $200+ lower than what the lowest price mentioned in #1 and #2. The exception to this rule is if I'm buying from another collector/enthusiast who knows what he has, but even then I find every time you move a machine, something breaks. My -$200+ rule often puts many machines out of consideration, but I've learned to live with that. The key to good deals is being patient.

What affects a game's value most?

There are some things that are worse than others:

1. Playfield wear

Major wear in areas of the playfield that are hard to touch up are to me, the biggest detractor from price. I'm not into replacing playfields because I think for most games, it costs too much to do that and you end up with a game you've put more into than you could ever get back out.

2. Bad backglass

If there is no NOS or repro backglass, and the game has a bad backglass, that's another indicator this game isn't worth that much.

3. Water damage

Depending upon where the damage is, this can be bad. Delamination of the cabinet, puffy MDF, etc. are all major pains to deal with. Any game that has a value < $1000 with water damage is IMO, a loss-leader.

4. Missing parts, or damaged major parts

If you have a game like Whitewater, that has messed up ramps, a new set of ramps is big money - the game has to be really cheap as a result. Some games, you just can't get replacement ramps for, so if you see some 80s and 90s era Gottliebs that have broken playfield pieces, you might be SOL at any price. This is where you have to really do your homework - you pick up a 90s Gottlieb DMD for $500, think you got a deal? Then you realize you can't get the part you need without buying another game for parts? You've lost money.
 
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Ahh, but theres the rub, a Whitewater is so insanely sought after that people will pay big bucks for one and not even blink about messed up plastics.

All about supply versus demand in the end.
 
Ahh, but theres the rub, a Whitewater is so insanely sought after that people will pay big bucks for one and not even blink about messed up plastics.

True. Whitewater is not a good example. Even though that game's ramps are hella expensive, it's still a sought after game worth the price (although I find it annoying if you have one broken plastic - a commonly broken one, you can't buy that plastic individually - you have to buy the whole lot which you don't need). Other games that are less desirable will have more substantive consequences when it comes to trying to replace ramps.
 
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